The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with speculation about the highly-anticipated ‘altcoin season,’ but according to expert insights, this major rally hinges on one crucial event — Ethereum reaching a new all-time high (ATH).
The Key to Altcoin Season: Ethereum’s ATH
Renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has identified Ethereum’s price action as instrumental in sparking a true altcoin rally. Drawing parallels to previous altcoin seasons in 2017 and 2021, Cowen outlines three essential triggers for such a market shift:
- Ethereum ATH Sustainability: Ethereum not only needs to break past its previous ATH but must hold its position above it for an extended period to signal strength in the broader crypto market.
- Bitcoin Dominance Weakness: Historically, a reduction in Bitcoin dominance is when altcoins begin to outperform significantly.
- Market Rotation: A clear shift of liquidity from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies solidifies the start of an altcoin season.
Cowen warns that Ethereum breaching ATH temporarily will not be sufficient; the asset must confirm strength with a pullback to its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
Why October May Delay Altcoin Hopes
October might be a frustrating month for altcoin enthusiasts, as historical data shows a substantial increase in Bitcoin dominance during this period. On average, October has seen Bitcoin dominance rise by 5%, an unfavorable condition for altcoins to gain traction.
The analyst suggests that the much-anticipated rotation into altcoins will follow once Bitcoin dominance begins a consistent decline. In other words, a genuine altcoin season could still be weeks or months away.
When Will the Crypto Market Peak?
For long-term investors, Cowen predicts the top of the current bull run will likely arrive in the fourth quarter of this year, aligning with patterns observed during past cycles (2013, 2017, and 2021). He bases this projection on the duration of previous cycles, which peaked approximately 1,059 to 1,067 days after the previous Bitcoin halving event. With the current market being 1,041 days old, the indicators suggest a peak is imminent.
What Happens Next? Bear Market Predictions
Beyond the anticipated peak, Cowen forecasts a bear market in 2026. However, he notes that this downturn might be less extreme, with only a 70% decline in value compared to the more severe corrections in previous bear markets.
For those preparing for the next trend, keeping an eye on Ethereum, Bitcoin dominance, and broader market rotations will be crucial.
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