The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure lately, and Ripple’s XRP is no exception. With its price dropping nearly 10% since last week, analysts are now noticing parallels with the 2022 market breakdown, raising concerns about the potential for XRP to fall below the psychologically significant $1 mark.
2022 Patterns Resurface
According to data from Glassnode, several key patterns observed during XRP’s 2022 decline have emerged once again. The first pattern highlights an imbalance in accumulation. Investors active in the 1-week to 1-month range are purchasing XRP at prices below the cost basis of 6-month to 12-month holders. This dynamic puts additional psychological pressure on those who bought XRP at market highs, reminiscent of February 2022’s downturn. “That pattern didn’t end gently last time,” a market observer pointed out.
Declining Volume and Lack of Buy Interest
The second concerning sign is the drop in trading volume paired with falling prices. Historically, this has indicated a lack of buyer conviction. The same scenario unfolded in early 2022, preceding XRP’s significant sell-off. Analysts note the current lack of substantial dip-buying interest, suggesting that market participants remain cautious, rather than optimistic.
Technical Indicators Warn of Risks
From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) patterns between 2025–2026 and the 2021–2022 cycle are showing strong similarities. Analysts warn that if XRP fails to hold its $1.8–$1.9 support zone, it could tumble by up to 45%, crossing below $1 and creating further challenges for the asset.
Is Rally Potential Still on the Horizon?
On a more optimistic note, some indicators suggest that XRP could stage a recovery. Analysts have identified a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which could push XRP above the critical $2.24 EMA (Exponential Moving Average). A positive breakout at the $2.48–$2.52 neckline zone could spark a 33% upward rally.
An on-chain crypto analyst has also noted signs of potential strength, including a completed CME daily trend retest and a filled 4-hour CME gap—a setup that could trigger a decoupling move for XRP. However, this bullish scenario hinges on reclaiming key technical thresholds, making the coming weeks crucial for traders and investors.
Stay Prepared in a Shifting Market
As XRP navigates this critical phase, market participants must remain vigilant. Whether the 2022 patterns lead to another significant decline or set the stage for a potential breakout remains to be seen. For those looking to safeguard or grow their investments, staying informed and monitoring technical indicators is essential.
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