XRP Price Analysis: Balancing Stability with Emerging Risks
The XRP price has held steady at around $2.20, showing resilience with a 1.5% gain over the past week. While the short-term trends remain promising, a closer look into holder behavior reveals a potential red flag in the form of rising long-term holder sell-offs. Let’s break down the market data and what it means for XRP investors.
Short-Term Holders Keep XRP Price Steady
Short-term XRP holders continue to show signs of strength, providing market stability. HODL Waves, which measure holding-time bands of supply, indicate that holders in the one-to-three-month range have increased their XRP holdings from 8.80% to 9.48% since November 11. Similarly, those in the one-week-to-one-month range have increased their holdings from 4.97% to 6.99%.
This shows that despite broader market uncertainties, short-term holders remain committed, accumulating more tokens rather than selling under pressure. This has served as a temporary stabilizing factor for the XRP price.
The Growing Red Flag: Long-Term Holders Are Selling
However, the behavior of long-term holders tells a different story. Data from Hodler Net Position Change shows increasing sell-offs among long-term wallets. Between November 23 and November 25, long-term holders sold approximately 84 million XRP — a 56% increase from their selling volume two days prior.
The last time this level of selling occurred, between November 16 and November 18, XRP suffered a significant drop from $2.22 to $1.96, a correction of nearly 12%. This trend highlights the need for traders to watch long-term sell-offs as a potential market risk.
Indicators Signal Caution and Potential Price Targets
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures unrealized profits or losses on paper, is currently near 0.50 for long-term holders. This region, often referred to as the “belief–denial” zone, typically signals local market tops. Historically, when NUPL hits this zone, a price correction often follows.
Additionally, XRP’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that tracks inflows and outflows of money from large wallets, has risen slightly above zero. While this indicates inflows, it has yet to break its descending trendline. Until these inflows strengthen, they may not be enough to fully counteract the selling pressure from long-term holders.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
For now, XRP trades within a tight range. The first major support level sits at $2.06. If long-term selling pressure persists and the price falls below this level, XRP could revisit the $1.81 mark, its recent local bottom.
On the upside, a clean close above $2.24 would signal a bullish breakout, paving the way for XRP to hit resistance levels at $2.58 and $2.69. However, this will require strong inflows and increased buyer interest to sustain momentum.
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Conclusion: Watch Long-Term Holder Behavior
Despite holding its green week-on-week trend, the XRP market shows cracks in the form of increasing sell-offs from long-term holders. Monitoring key indicators like NUPL and CMF could provide valuable insights into upcoming market movements. Traders should remain cautious and informed as XRP navigates this delicate balance.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
