The question of whether Donald Trump will visit China in 2025 has sparked intense interest in prediction markets and diplomatic circles alike. With reports referencing potential meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and ongoing negotiations about TikTok’s future in the U.S., this topic is heating up as we move further into 2025.
What Are Prediction Markets Saying?
Prediction platforms such as Myriad, Kalshi, and Polymarket are abuzz with speculation. Myriad’s market suggests a nearly 48% chance that Trump will set foot in mainland China by the end of December 2025. However, this market will only resolve as “Yes” if verified by official statements or reputable news sources and does not include stopovers in places like Hong Kong or Taiwan.
On Kalshi, a regulated U.S. event-futures exchange, participants are placing a 73% likelihood on a Trump-Xi meeting occurring before the year concludes. Polymarket, which offers a broader look at potential travel destinations for Trump, shows China as one of the leading contenders, trading at around a 52% chance of an official visit.
Why Is This Possible?
There is a growing sense of diplomatic thaw between Washington and Beijing, fueled by reports from sources such as Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. Recent negotiations have resulted in a framework for TikTok, spearheaded by a proposed Trump-Xi phone conversation. This has opened the door for higher-level discussions, with trade agreements reportedly being a key area of focus.
Beijing is said to have extended a formal invitation to Trump, adding weight to the likelihood of a state visit. With both nations exploring pragmatic partnerships amid global competition, the possibility of bilateral talks seems more plausible than ever.
What Are the Markets Watching?
Traders involved in these prediction markets closely monitor every development. A leaked report of an advance delegation sent to China, a confirmed phone call between Trump and Xi, or even hints at an official press release can all swing market prices dramatically. Here’s how the platforms are shaping up:
- Myriad: Offers a direct bet on whether Trump will physically visit mainland China by December 2025.
- Kalshi: Focuses on whether Trump will meet Xi Jinping or other world leaders, with Xi currently leading the race.
- Polymarket: Provides a comparative analysis of possible destinations for Trump, with China being a top prospect.
Conclusion
Although no visit has been confirmed yet, the current diplomatic trajectory and active prediction markets suggest that a Trump visit to China in 2025 is entirely possible—and tradable. As events unfold, these markets will serve as valuable barometers of sentiment and likelihood.
Looking to explore and trade in prediction markets yourself? Consider platforms such as Myriad and Kalshi for tailored options that meet your interests in geopolitics and global events. For broader market sentiment, check out Polymarket’s extensive range of topics, including international relations and global travel prospects.
