A Polymarket trader has sparked controversy after netting $1 million by placing shockingly accurate bets on Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings. This has ignited speculation about potential insider trading and drawn attention to how prediction markets might be used for profit.
The Winning Streak: How It Happened
The wallet address “0xafEe,” previously known as “AlphaRaccoon,” engineered near-flawless predictions in Polymarket’s Google trends markets, achieving a 22-for-23 success rate. The trader wagered $10,647 on d4vd, a 20-year-old musician with a mere 0.2% likelihood of being the most-searched name in 2025, winning almost $200,000. Additionally, significant gains came from “No” bets on high-profile individuals such as Donald Trump, Bianca Censori, and Pope Leo XIV.
According to blockchain data, the wallet deposited $3 million into Polymarket, placing large bets immediately. Intriguingly, this same account previously made over $150,000 by correctly predicting the Gemini 3.0 Flash release date, which raises serious concerns about the source of their information.
Is This Insider Trading?
The crypto community has been divided. While some users suspect the trader is affiliated with Google, leveraging insider knowledge for financial gain, no evidence confirms these allegations. A notable voice, Meta engineer Jeong Haeju, voiced his concerns on X (formerly Twitter), stating, “At this point, it’s obvious: He’s a Google insider milking Polymarket for quick money.”
Others argue that prediction markets inherently invite insider trading. An X user, WiiMee, commented, “The reason for prediction markets to exist is insider trading. In stocks, it’s prohibited; with predictions, it’s endorsed.” Ultimately, the debate highlights the challenge of ensuring fairness on platforms enabling financial speculation on future events.
Polymarket’s Role and Future
This controversy coincides with Polymarket’s recent relaunch in the United States following approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Alongside its debut sports-focused iOS app, the platform reportedly processed over $3.7 billion in trading volume during November 2025 alone. Backed by a colossal $2 billion investment from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Polymarket continues to grow, with a valuation now reaching $12 billion.
Adding to its roadmap, the company plans to release its much-anticipated native token, POLY, coupled with an airdrop. However, as the platform matures, it faces increasing scrutiny, particularly over handling insider trading concerns. How Polymarket navigates these regulatory and ethical issues in the coming years might shape its long-term reputation and growth trajectory.
What This Means for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are often lauded for their efficiency in aggregating public information. Still, significant ethical questions arise when they seemingly reward individuals with access to privileged information. The recent Google search bets serve as a case study in whether such markets are valuable tools for collective intelligence or simply a playground for insiders.
Our Recommendation
Whether you’re an enthusiast exploring prediction markets or a curious observer, it’s essential to approach these platforms with caution. Consider your investments carefully, and stay updated with the regulatory framework shaping these emerging markets.
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