Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock performance remains one of the most debated topics in the finance and investment world. However, a new analysis from Gordon Johnson of GJL Research has turned heads, predicting what could be a dramatic downturn for the electric vehicle (EV) giant’s stock in 2026. His latest projection forecasts the stock dipping to just $25.28—representing a staggering 95% drop from its January 2026 price of $429.97.
Why Is Tesla Stock Under Scrutiny?
Gordon Johnson is widely known as one of Tesla’s most bearish critics. His case against the company hinges on two key factors: Tesla’s failing growth in delivery numbers and Elon Musk’s contentious track record of unfulfilled promises.
In 2025, Tesla lost its title as the world’s largest EV manufacturer to China’s BYD. Tesla’s annual sales tallied up to 1.63 million cars, falling short of BYD’s impressive 2.26 million. This significant gap has fueled Johnson’s concerns about Tesla’s inability to maintain its once-dominant position in the EV market.
Is Full Self-Driving Holding Tesla Back?
A major sticking point for Johnson’s skepticism is Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. For years, Elon Musk has claimed that fully autonomous driving is just around the corner. Fast forward to 2026, and while FSD technology is being tested, competitors like Waymo are leading the race. Additionally, Johnson highlighted Hyundai’s decision not to license Tesla’s FSD technology, calling Tesla’s vision-only approach a strategic misstep.
GJL Research has been vocal about the shortcomings of Tesla’s technology, and Johnson has made it clear on social media that he doesn’t foresee other automakers adopting Tesla’s approach anytime soon.
Stock Market Reality Check
Although Johnson’s prediction has caught attention, Tesla’s stock performance in the recent past tells a different story. Despite a volatile 2025, Tesla shares closed at $429.97 on January 7, 2026, reflecting an 8.87% year-over-year growth. Many analysts attribute this stability to Tesla’s continued branding as more than just a car manufacturer—a technology and artificial intelligence powerhouse.
Investor Takeaway
Ultimately, Johnson’s bearish outlook could be interpreted as a challenge to reframe how Tesla is valued. Is the company truly an innovative tech leader, or should it be viewed as a traditional car manufacturer? For investors, this distinction could be a game-changer in determining whether to buy, hold, or sell Tesla stock.
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