October 2025 promises to be a watershed moment for Ripple and its cryptocurrency, XRP. With two massive regulatory decisions looming—the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) verdict on multiple XRP Spot ETFs and Ripple’s U.S. national banking license application—this month could define Ripple’s trajectory within the financial and cryptocurrency sectors.
Spotlight on XRP ETFs: Will Approval Drive Adoption?
The SEC is set to announce its decisions on several XRP Spot ETF applications between October 18 and October 25. Major issuers such as Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, CoinShares, WisdomTree, Canary Capital, and Franklin Templeton await regulatory approval. After a previous extension from August, the SEC must now deliver a final ruling by late October, as no further delays are allowed under its 60-day extension policy.
Should the SEC greenlight these ETFs, it could provide institutional investors with a regulated pathway to trade XRP, boosting adoption and liquidity for the token. Conversely, a rejection could delay Ripple’s goal of cementing XRP’s position in traditional markets, leaving investors with bearish sentiments.
For crypto traders, the ETF news is expected to have a direct impact on XRP prices. Recently, XRP traded below the critical $3 support level, erasing its August gains. If the token doesn’t reclaim the $3.30 level soon, on-chain analysts predict further declines, with potential targets as low as $2.60 or even $2.00.
National Banking License: A Game-Changer?
Alongside the ETF decisions, Ripple awaits another pivotal ruling—its application for a U.S. national banking license. Filed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), this license would allow Ripple to become a federally regulated trust bank. Ripple could then legally hold RLUSD reserves directly with the Federal Reserve, marking a milestone for the company in terms of credibility and regulation within the U.S. financial system.
However, analysts caution that the OCC’s timeline of 120 days, which would end in late October, may not reflect practical realities. Market experts like JD suggest a more realistic approval timeframe of 12–18 months. Regardless, progress on the application indicates Ripple’s growing commitment to operating within a regulated environment.
October’s High-Stakes Double Verdict
Crypto experts, including lawyer Bill Morgan, see October 2025 as “make-or-break” for Ripple. If the SEC approves XRP ETFs and the OCC grants the national banking license, Ripple could finally gain the regulatory clarity and institutional trust it has long sought. On the other hand, setbacks in either or both processes could stall Ripple’s momentum just as it aims to expand its ecosystem further into traditional financial systems.
The recent resolution of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC has already restored some optimism among investors. Now, these pivotal regulatory decisions could either accelerate Ripple’s integration into the U.S. financial system or temporarily slow its growth trajectory.
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