What to Expect from Today’s FOMC Meeting
All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for today. At 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release its decision on interest rates, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET. Current probabilities strongly suggest a steady rate policy, with a 97% likelihood of no rate changes according to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool.
Inflation Data and Economic Strength
Recent economic data supports the case for no immediate policy shifts. Inflation as per U.S. CPI remains stable at 2.7%, while the Fed’s preferred measure, PCE inflation, sits slightly higher at 2.8%. Despite challenges like the 2025 government shutdown, the labor market has shown unexpected resilience, with durable goods orders holding steady and unemployment rates low.
This strength offers the Federal Reserve enough flexibility to hold rates while monitoring inflation trends. Former Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson advocates patience, noting that inflation, though reduced, continues above the 2% target.
Implications for Cryptocurrency Markets
Historical patterns underline how FOMC meetings impact cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. In 2025, Bitcoin declined after seven of eight FOMC meetings, with losses ranging between 6% and 29%. Despite optimism leading up to rate announcements, post-announcement sentiment often turns bearish.
If the Fed holds rates steady, crypto markets are likely to see heightened volatility. Predictions for financial easing later this year offer some optimism for long-term investors, although analysts are divided. For instance, Goldman Sachs anticipates rate cuts in 2026, while J.P. Morgan projects steady rates into 2027 barring inflation spikes.
The Role of Global Markets
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes warns of external factors that may influence U.S. financial markets. Particularly, instability in Japan’s bond market could prompt U.S. intervention, potentially benefiting Bitcoin and other risk assets through injected liquidity.
In the short term, monitoring Powell’s guidance during the press conference will provide insights into the Fed’s commitment to data-driven decision-making and its projected economic outlook.
Your Next Steps
Keeping up with trends and market reactions is key for cryptocurrency investors. Platforms like Coinbase[affiliate link] make it easier to track market volatility in real-time. Whether you’re new to crypto or a seasoned investor, staying informed empowers you to make smarter financial decisions.
