The cryptocurrency market continues to capture global attention, with recent insights suggesting a potential extension of the ongoing bull run well into 2026. Arthur Hayes, the Founder of BitMEX, shares a compelling argument for why Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies might experience new heights despite market challenges.
The $117K Barrier: A Key Milestone for Bitcoin
According to Hayes, the current Bitcoin rally must surpass a crucial resistance level of $117K. This level holds significant weight because a substantial volume of Bitcoin was purchased at this price, and sell-pressure could arise from investors opting for profits. As market data from Glassnode highlights, overcoming this hurdle will be critical for Bitcoin’s continued advance toward a projected $120K.
Historical Trends Backing Future Growth
Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle peaks have aligned with specific patterns. In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin reached its highest levels in Q4 of the year following its halving events. If this pattern holds true, Q4 of 2025 is expected to see Bitcoin’s next major peak. However, Hayes predicts an extended rally into 2026 due to macroeconomic and political catalysts.
How Political Factors Could Affect Crypto
One of the key drivers Hayes identifies is the potential influence of former President Donald Trump, who may seek re-election in the 2026 midterms. Hayes suggests that financial stimulus policies, akin to COVID-19 relief checks, could be used to bolster public spending, indirectly benefiting equity markets, cryptocurrencies, and other asset classes. Additionally, by 2026, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies may shift under new leadership, creating conditions for further market growth.
Euphoria and Market Sentiment
Market data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin is currently in a state of euphoria, often associated with price discovery phases or record-breaking highs. While this phase presents opportunities for gains, it also raises the risk of sell-offs due to unrealized profit-taking. However, Hayes emphasizes that indicators like the True MVRV still leave room for further upward movement, suggesting the market may not have reached its ultimate peak yet.
Looking Ahead: What Investors Should Watch
In the short term, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s ability to conquer the $117K milestone. As Hayes points out, the level of activity and investor sentiment around this price will shape the trajectory of the crypto market heading into 2024 and beyond. For investors seeking opportunities within this dynamic market, keeping track of macroeconomic trends, political policies, and key technical indicators will be essential.
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