As September kicks off, Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself at a crossroads, with its historical trend of September downturns looming large. Since 2013, the month has earned the unenviable title of Bitcoin’s weakest, averaging a -3.77% return. The cryptocurrency’s 5.91% decline in August further intensifies the cautious sentiment among traders, many of whom are wary of potential losses amid ongoing interest rate concerns.
Tracking Bitcoin’s Potential Reversal
Despite these bearish signals, prominent cryptocurrency analyst TradingShot remains optimistic, highlighting technical indicators that point toward a rebound. According to a September 1 analysis shared on TradingView, Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined upward channel since May, completing two bullish legs of approximately 22% each. These movements follow a predictable pattern of corrections, starting with a dip toward the 50-day moving average (MA) and later testing the channel’s lower boundaries.
Currently, BTC has tested its 20-week MA—a historically significant support level during bullish cycles. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also suggest rebound potential, as the RSI has formed lower lows reminiscent of conditions preceding rallies, including Bitcoin’s surge in June.
A Bold Forecast: Bitcoin to $130,000?
TradingShot’s analysis suggests that if historical patterns hold, Bitcoin could embark on another bullish leg of at least 21%, driving its price close to $130,000. This projection aligns with broader cycle-top models that hinge on Bitcoin maintaining its current upward channel structure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $108,400, just 3% lower than its weekly peak.
Resistance levels are also coming into play: Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at $116,091, while the 200-day SMA—positioned significantly lower at $95,954—provides reassurance that the broader trend remains bullish. Moreover, with the RSI at 38.05, Bitcoin appears oversold, potentially signaling a buying opportunity if momentum shifts in favor of bulls.
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The Bottom Line
While September has historically been challenging for Bitcoin, the current setup suggests that a bullish reversal is in the cards. With technical indicators and long-term trends pointing upward, BTC’s path to $130,000 may very well become reality. However, as with any investment, particularly in the volatile crypto market, caution and research are paramount.
