Bitcoin’s First Red October Since 2018: What Happened?
For the first time in seven years, Bitcoin (BTC) has closed October in the red. As the leading cryptocurrency slipped by 3.69%, this marks its worst October performance since 2018, departing from the traditionally bullish fourth quarter trend that traders have come to expect. Historically, October has earned the nickname ‘Uptober,’ thanks to its tendency to deliver strong gains, but 2025 broke this streak unexpectedly.
Interestingly, when Bitcoin last faced a red October in 2018, the following November saw a brutal crash in price, with BTC plunging 36%—and by the end of that year, the cryptocurrency was down 85% from its all-time high. However, this time, the macro backdrop and on-chain data suggest a different trajectory might be in store.
Mixed Macro Conditions and Rising Accumulation
October’s price decline coincided with challenging macroeconomic factors, including rising Treasury yields, uncertainty around U.S. interest rate cuts, and dampened on-chain activity. However, despite the price softness, long-term holders and institutional investors were quietly accumulating.
Data shared by analytics platform Santiment revealed that whales—large holders managing between 10 to 10,000 BTC—added an astonishing $5.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in October alone. These wallets now control 13.68 million BTC, a staggering 68.6% of the total circulating supply.
Analysts believe this quiet accumulation signals that institutional investors are preparing for Bitcoin’s next major uptrend, particularly given November’s traditionally strong performance. Over the last decade, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month, boasting an average gain of 42.5%. A similar move in 2025 could push BTC prices near $160,000, marking a staggering recovery and a new all-time high.
Forecast for November: Historical Tailwinds Favor the Bulls
While October’s performance missed the mark, November holds the potential to shift markets back into bullish momentum. Historically, Bitcoin has finished November in the green eight out of the last 11 years. Significant rallies, such as the 43% surge in 2020 and the astounding 450% growth in November 2013, underscore why traders are optimistic.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s market structure appears to remain strong. BTC has been holding firm around the $95,000 range, showing signs of consolidation rather than further decline. Whale activities, lower retail sentiment, and compressed volatility point toward a potential explosive move in the near future.
Significant catalysts to watch in November include:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF flows: Renewed institutional demand could drive significant price increases.
- U.S. macroeconomic data: Inflation outcomes and Federal Reserve rate expectations will shape market sentiment.
- On-chain accumulation: Sustained whale and holding patterns confirm market support.
With historical performance as a guide, sentiment among analysts is cautiously optimistic. As one industry voice put it, “Smart money isn’t waiting for confirmation. They’ve already positioned themselves for the next leg up.”
Bitcoin Remains Resilient: Key Takeaways for Investors
Contextualizing Bitcoin’s lackluster October performance within the broader 2025 trend indicates resilience. BTC remains one of 2025’s top-performing assets, up over 90% year-to-date. Short-term pullbacks aren’t uncommon, even in prolonged bull markets.
For investors looking to maximize gains, accumulating during dips might be a strategy worth considering. Products like the Ledger Nano X cryptocurrency wallet can help secure holdings amidst market volatility. With strong fundamentals like limited supply, increased institutional buy-in, and growing adoption, Bitcoin continues to shine amid turbulent markets.
Conclusion
While 2025’s “Uptober” took an unexpected turn, November might yet live up to its reputation as Bitcoin’s strongest month. Historically, bull markets don’t run in straight lines, and temporary pauses often provide critical accumulation periods. With whales quietly adding billions, volatility reaching record lows, and historical tailwinds in play, the stage is set for an explosive November rally.
As the saying goes: “Weak hands panic, strong hands accumulate.” With the latest data pointing towards continued confidence among large holders, Bitcoin enthusiasts have reason to stay optimistic as the end of 2025 approaches.
