Bitcoin Approaches ETF Breakeven Point Amid Slower Inflows
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is inching closer to the breakeven level of exchange-traded fund (ETF) buyers as its price hovers around $90,000. This follows a 28% drop from the October peak of $126,000. While ETF inflows have recently turned negative, indications suggest that support may be forming near the ETF cost basis level of $83,000. Investors are now closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision, which could influence market sentiment.
ETFs Provide Market Stability Amid Price Volatility
According to recent data, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold $117.67 billion in Bitcoin, representing roughly 6.55% of the total supply. Despite a period of negative net inflows, strong on-chain and ETF support levels seem to be maintaining structural demand. Historically, Bitcoin has managed to rebound from similar corrections near ETF cost basis levels, as witnessed during significant price drops between March and August 2024 and January and April 2025.
Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUCoin, commented, “Bitcoin is sitting on a strong on-chain and ETF support cluster where risk–reward historically favors the upside. A sustained bounce hinges on renewed ETF inflows and macroeconomic stability over the next one to two weeks.”
Federal Reserve’s Upcoming Rate Cut Under Spotlight
Investor focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where a quarter-point rate cut is almost guaranteed. The critical factor will be the Fed’s forward guidance. Market experts believe that a supportive cut could increase the likelihood of a Bitcoin market rebound, bolstered by ETF demand.
“If the Fed signals another potential rate cut before June, it will reinforce market optimism,” says Mark Pilipczuk, Chief Marketing Officer at CF Benchmarks. However, if the Fed adopts a hawkish tone, concerns over prolonged inflation could hinder Bitcoin’s recovery momentum.
How to Position Yourself for Bitcoin’s Potential Rebound
For retail and institutional investors, now could be an opportune time to reassess market positions. With historical evidence suggesting rebounds near key support levels, products such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) offer an accessible way to participate in Bitcoin’s potential market recovery. GBTC provides secure exposure to Bitcoin’s performance without the complexities of directly owning and managing cryptocurrency.
As Bitcoin navigates current volatility, a combination of macroeconomic signals and ETF inflows will likely determine its next move, making the coming weeks critical for traders and investors alike.
