September is often regarded as a challenging month for Bitcoin, with historical trends showing bearish seasonality. However, this time around, Bitcoin derivatives traders appear more optimistic, betting on potential upside while also hedging against possible risks. The cryptocurrency has experienced a 3% rise over the past two days, trading at approximately $110,000, according to CoinGecko.
Why Traders Are Optimistic
Recent market movements have shown increasing confidence among Bitcoin traders despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Data suggests the price uptick correlates with an increase in passive bids recorded at a 10% order book depth, according to CoinGlass. While cumulative volume deltas remain flat, open interest in perpetuals has climbed 2.35% to $30 billion in two days, particularly ahead of the U.S. employment data release. This reflects traders positioning for a more positive market environment.
Bitcoin Options Market Signals Bullish Sentiment
In the Bitcoin options market, many traders are placing bullish bets targeting $120,000, $130,000, and even $140,000 strikes, particularly for the September 26 expiry. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Dervie, highlighted that market makers are now net long gamma. This positioning means price increases in Bitcoin will likely face dampening effects from hedge selling, while sharp price drops will also be cushioned as dealers hedge by buying.
Implied Volatility Indicates Caution
Implied volatility for Bitcoin over the next 30 days remains near historic lows at 30%, demonstrating subdued price activity. However, not everyone is completely relaxed. The one-week 25-delta skew, which measures downside protection demand, jumped from 6.75 to 12 overnight, suggesting that investors are hedging against the risk of a sudden decline.
What Comes Next?
The market’s immediate direction depends significantly on this Friday’s upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report. According to analysts, a strong jobs report could limit the historically bearish damage of “red September” but is unlikely to catalyze a major upside rally. Meanwhile, a widely anticipated 25 basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve is considered critical. If the rate cut doesn’t materialize, September sentiment could worsen significantly.
Top Tip for Crypto Enthusiasts
If you’re diving into Bitcoin trading, maintaining a secure and user-friendly crypto wallet is essential. Consider hardware wallets like the Trezor Model T, which ensures your assets stay protected against market volatility while providing seamless transaction options.
