Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is currently trading at a remarkable value near $89,260. However, a leading crypto analyst has issued a stark warning for Bitcoin enthusiasts. According to Ali Martinez, a respected on-chain cryptocurrency analyst, a potentially bearish technical signal called a ‘death cross’ could send Bitcoin tumbling to $38,000 in 2026.
Historical Context of Bitcoin’s Death Cross
Martinez explains that the ‘death cross’ occurs when Bitcoin’s 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMA) intersect in a specific pattern. Historically, this signal has often marked significant downturns in Bitcoin’s value:
- September 2014: Bitcoin dropped by 67%
- June 2018: A 54% plunge
- March 2020: Decline of 53%
- January 2022: Bitcoin’s value fell by 64%
With this historical trend in mind, Martinez predicts a correction in Bitcoin prices to a range of $38,000 to $50,000 in 2026, which equates to a drop of approximately 57% to 44% from current levels.
Opportunity in the Midst of a Crash
While this forecast may seem alarming, Martinez also highlights a silver lining. Historically, such price corrections have presented lucrative buying opportunities for long-term investors. Following significant price declines, Bitcoin has historically shown remarkable recoveries, making it an attractive long-term investment for those willing to weather short-term volatility.
Market Analysis: Insights from Industry Experts
Bloomberg’s senior commodity analyst, Mike McGlone, backs up some of this cautious optimism. McGlone suggests that Bitcoin might crash closer to $50,000 by 2026. He also noted the downward trajectory of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which dropped by 19% in 2025, as a sign that the broader crypto market is facing similar pressures.
Adding to this, 2025 defied Bitcoin’s historically reliable 4-year cycle. Instead of registering gains in its third year, Bitcoin closed the year down by approximately 8%, sparking concerns about its future predictability.
Positioning for the Next Boom
If history is any guide, Bitcoin could still rebound following a correction, potentially sparking renewed rallies in the years to come—though experts suggest this might not happen until at least 2027. This timeline gives investors ample opportunity to strategically plan entry points for the world’s most widely recognized cryptocurrency.
Recommended Tool for Crypto Traders
For those navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrency, reliable trading platforms are essential. eToro, a globally recognized investment platform, offers tools for cryptocurrency trading, stocks, and more. With features like 0% commission on stocks and the ability to copy top-performing traders, it is an excellent platform for traders at all experience levels. Note that investments are risky, and trading requires due diligence.
As the cryptocurrency market evolves, keeping a close watch on trends and expert insights will deliver a competitive edge to crypto enthusiasts. Stay updated, plan wisely, and tread carefully on your investment journey.
