Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Still Intact? Analysts Weigh In
Despite a significant price correction from the $126,000 peak, Bitcoin (BTC) remains above critical support levels. With the price hovering around $103,000, many investors are cautiously considering whether to sell. However, experts argue that the bull cycle is far from over, citing historical trends and macroeconomic conditions that favor ongoing growth.
The Technical Perspective: 50-Week SMA as Key Support
Technical analyst Colin notes that Bitcoin’s uptrend remains unbroken as long as the price stays above the crucial 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). Currently situated near $102,000, this level has historically marked a dividing line between bull and bear markets. Past cycles, including 2016–2017 and 2020–2021, demonstrate that Bitcoin has consistently rebounded from this SMA during bull runs, pushing prices to new highs.
Renowned analyst Lark Davis emphasizes the importance of this threshold, referring to it as the “line in the sand.” According to Davis, a weekly close below this level could lead to more significant corrections, potentially reaching as low as $40,000.
Complementing this view, Scott Melker highlights that Bitcoin has breached the 50-week SMA only four times in history — in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022 — with each occurrence triggering prolonged bearish phases.
Macroeconomic Factors Align in Favor of Bitcoin
Beyond technical charts, macroeconomic conditions are shaping up to support Bitcoin. Colin and other experts believe that shifts in Federal Reserve policy could act as a catalyst for a renewed bull cycle. Key factors include:
- The potential end of Quantitative Tightening (QT)
- Speculation about upcoming interest rate cuts
Historical data from 2019 supports this outlook. When the Federal Reserve ended QT and began cutting rates, Bitcoin initially dipped before rallying alongside expanded liquidity measures. The current environment mirrors these conditions, making it likely that Bitcoin will see sustained growth as monetary policies ease.
Will Altcoins Outperform? The Start of a Possible Altseason
Colin predicts that declining Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) in the coming weeks may lead to an “altseason,” where altcoins outperform after Bitcoin stabilizes. While only three of the 55 major altcoins have currently outperformed BTC, cyclical indicators suggest this trend could shift as liquidity returns.
What’s Next for Bitcoin in 2025?
Analysts forecast that Bitcoin’s price could surge to a range of $140,000-$180,000 by 2026 if current trends continue. With global financial markets adapting to monetary easing and increasing liquidity, Bitcoin is positioned to replicate its historic growth patterns from 2020.
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Final Thoughts
While Bitcoin’s recent pullback has raised concerns, both technical and macroeconomic factors indicate that the bull trend remains alive. Investors are advised to monitor key support levels like the 50-week SMA while staying informed about global market developments. As Bitcoin edges back toward $106,000 or higher, the long-term potential for growth appears strong.
