Early Signals of a Bitcoin Bear Market
As cryptocurrencies continue to evolve, Bitcoin, the flagship digital asset, has entered a bear market according to multiple on-chain metrics and market indicators. Experts predict this trend may persist throughout 2026, raising concerns among investors and enthusiasts alike.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, shared insights in a recent podcast episode, asserting that Bitcoin has already been in a bear market since November 2025. “Every on-chain or market metric confirms we’re in the early stages of a bear market,” he noted. This outlook points to a continued downtrend in pricing and limited potential for new all-time highs in the near term.
Decreasing Demand: What’s Behind the Dip?
Bitcoin demand has seen a significant decline, which Moreno attributes to a variety of factors. A notable shift occurred within exchange-traded funds (ETFs). US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had been strong catalysts for institutional inflows in 2024 and 2025, have now transitioned into being net sellers. Moreno highlighted, “They were aggressively buying, then slowed down, and now they’re selling. This has left the market without a major demand fuel.”
This lack of demand isn’t limited to ETFs. Companies adopting Bitcoin as a treasury reserve—once a prominent trend—have slowed down drastically. Industry pioneers like MicroStrategy remain active in Bitcoin accumulation, but other firms, such as Twenty One Capital and MetaPlanet, have significantly reduced or ceased purchases altogether. Without consistent demand growth, any upward movement in Bitcoin’s price is at risk of being short-lived, often referred to as bull traps.
Risk of Forced Selling Looms
Another critical factor adding pressure to Bitcoin prices is the potential for forced selling. Moreno warns that declining prices could push corporate treasuries holding substantial Bitcoin portfolios to liquidate their assets to manage financial challenges. This could serve as a catalyst for further price drops, with Moreno suggesting Bitcoin may find its next bottom near $56,000.
Looking Ahead: Can Demand Recover?
Despite the bearish tone, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin still carries hope. Moreno emphasizes that a recovery depends on demand returning to the market. “The moment demand stops contracting and starts to grow again, that’s when the market structure changes,” he explained.
For now, investors are advised to exercise caution and rely on transparent, data-driven analysis to navigate the current market cycle. Staying informed about ETF dynamics and institutional activity in cryptocurrencies can serve as a valuable tool for managing risk.
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Stay updated on market trends and make informed decisions during this period of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency space. An informed investor is a prepared investor.
