Bitcoin’s Path to Breakout: The Key Metrics to Watch
Bitcoin’s breakout potential continues to captivate crypto enthusiasts and investors. Following a strong recovery above the 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), Bitcoin is looking to chart a bullish path. But one critical obstacle remains: the persistent selling pressure from ultra-long-term holders, which casts uncertainty over the next leg of its rally.
As per the latest data, Bitcoin is trading within a cup-and-handle pattern, a classic formation signaling bullish momentum. Despite a brief push towards $92,400 that saw a retracement, this structure remains strong as long as the 20-day EMA holds firm. This technical level, reclaimed on January 10, has since been accompanied by two successive green daily candles — a bullish indicator for future price movement.
Why Is $92,400 a Crucial Zone to Break?
Historically, Bitcoin’s ability to break above crucial resistance levels has triggered significant upticks in price. If BTC closes above $92,400 on the daily chart, analysts predict a swift rally toward $94,870, completing the 12% breakout narrative. Beyond this, the projected target zone would push Bitcoin toward the $106,630 mark — a promising move for both bullish traders and long-term holders.
Who’s Selling? On-Chain Data Provides Answers
On-chain analytics reveal an intriguing dynamic among different cohorts of Bitcoin holders. While short-term sellers have largely exited the market, ultra-long-term holders — those who have held their coins for over a year — remain net sellers. This group has distributed over 286,700 BTC since the start of the year, though the rate has slowed significantly in the last week.
In contrast, long-term holders (holding for 155 days or more) have reverted to net buyers since late December. This cohort continues to accumulate, providing a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s upward trend. However, until ultra-long-term selling flips to net buying, Bitcoin’s rally could face resistance near key levels.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
For Bitcoin to maintain its bullish structure, staying above $89,230 is essential. A daily close below this support zone could lead to a deeper correction toward $84,330, completely invalidating the upward momentum. Conversely, breaking past $92,400 with strong volume could pave the way for the 12% breakout everyone is eyeing. Given the data, both retail and institutional investors await this critical move.
Stay Ahead in the Crypto World
Whether you’re a seasoned crypto investor or a curious observer, staying updated on market trends and technical analysis is critical. We recommend using robust platforms like Trezor Wallet to safely store your crypto assets during volatile periods. With Trezor, you gain security and peace of mind, essential for navigating the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s breakout story is far from over. The crypto giant continues to hold investors’ attention as it tests crucial resistance levels and battles selling pressure. While short-term and long-term holders seem optimistic, ultra-long-term holders still present a challenge to BTC’s rally. With the right technical and sentiment shifts, a sustained breakout could still be on the cards. Stay informed, track market trends, and make strategic moves to capitalize on Bitcoin’s next phase.
