Bitcoin’s Latest Price Action: What’s Happening?
Bitcoin's recent rebound has left traders and observers scratching their heads. After dropping to $85,970, it showed a brief 4% recovery, reaching $89,380 before stalling. Despite positive ETF news and signs of technical stabilization, macroeconomic conditions are overpowering short-term bullish signals.
Is Rate-Cut Optimism Missing?
The most significant factor limiting Bitcoin's growth is the lack of rate-cut optimism. According to Polymarket, the Federal Reserve is nearly certain (99% probability) to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting. This macroeconomic caution is keeping liquidity tight, preventing Bitcoin from breaking out of its prolonged range.
Interestingly, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exhibited a hidden bullish divergence, with prices forming higher lows while RSI posted lower lows. However, despite this technical signal hinting at potential upward momentum, the recovery stalled at just 4% before sellers returned to the market.
ETF Buzz Fails to Ignite Bitcoin
ETF-related optimism usually boosts markets, but that hasn't been the case this time around. BlackRock recently filed for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, which aims to combine Bitcoin's performance with premium income generation. Despite this exciting development, it didn't spark the usual investor enthusiasm. Without macro support, even significant events like ETF filings fail to make waves.
Bitcoin Whales Show Long-Term Conviction
While the short-term price action looks unexciting, whales—large Bitcoin holders—are quietly accumulating. Wallets holding 1,000-10,000 BTC increased their balances from 4.28 million to 4.29 million BTC since January 21. Even larger holders, with 100,000-1 million BTC, added roughly 8,000 coins, totaling $1.6 billion. This accumulation reflects long-term belief in Bitcoin, but it's not enough to drive immediate upward momentum.
What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin currently faces a significant resistance zone between $90,160 and $90,590, where approximately 176,000 BTC sit at cost basis. This "sell wall" hampers upward movement until the price breaks past it. On the downside, strong support at $84,440-$84,840, accounting for nearly 395,000 BTC, acts as a buffer against further declines.
If Bitcoin can close above $90,830 on the daily chart, it could signal a meaningful breakout, with a potential price target near $97,190. However, if it falls below the $84,400 level, downside risks reemerge, challenging the long-term holders' accumulation efforts.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is stuck between conviction buying by whales and macroeconomic hesitation. Until external factors like rate-cut expectations shift or it manages to break above key resistance levels, the cryptocurrency's range-bound behavior is likely to persist.
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