Is $100,000 Still Possible for Bitcoin? Here’s What History Tells Us
The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with speculation as Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure. Recent price declines have left many wondering whether the journey to the elusive $100,000 mark is still on. By examining historical trends and key technical insights, we uncover why this milestone might still be achievable.
Current Bitcoin Market Trends
Despite a 6.6% drop over the past week, Bitcoin is showing familiar signals of potential rebound. Between mid-December and late January, Bitcoin’s price formed a higher low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved lower. Historically, this hidden bullish divergence often indicates selling pressure is slowing, creating a potential setup for recovery.
The Role of Moving Averages in Bitcoin’s Path
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) play a critical role in determining Bitcoin’s next movements. BTC recently lost both its 20-day and 50-day EMAs but could reclaim them soon. Several past patterns suggest that retaking these levels can lead to significant rallies. For instance, Bitcoin gained:
- 16.9% in late June 2025,
- 11.7% in late September 2025, and
- 10% in early January 2026.
If Bitcoin regains these moving averages, a move toward $100,000 remains mathematically feasible.
On-Chain Metrics: What Do They Indicate?
While technical indicators are promising, on-chain metrics offer mixed signals. Whale activity remains constructive as addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC remain stable. Furthermore, long-term holders (wallets that have held Bitcoin for over 155 days) are absorbing supply, with inflows increasing by 62% in the past week. However, very long-term holders (over one-year holding wallets) have accelerated selling activity, a trend preventing Bitcoin from breaking higher.
Key Levels to Watch
For Bitcoin to reignite its upward momentum:
- A daily close above $94,390 and $96,420 would signal a reclaim of critical EMAs.
- This could lead to a push toward $100,240, approximately a 12% increase from current levels.
Conversely, breaking below $87,830 could invalidate recovery patterns, exposing a deeper support zone around $84,350.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin doesn’t need a miracle to hit $100,000—it needs stabilization of momentum and key technical alignments. While long-term holders’ selling poses challenges, aligning technical indicators with reduced selling pressure may pave the way for a remarkable recovery.
