Portugal’s Regulatory Crackdown on Political Betting
In a decisive move, Portugal’s gambling authority, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), has ordered Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, to cease operations in the country within 48 hours. This comes after a significant spike in betting activity related to the country’s presidential election, with wagers surpassing €103 million ($120 million).
Why Is Polymarket’s Operation in Portugal Illegal?
Under Portugal’s 2015 online gambling law, betting is only permitted for sports, casino games, and horse racing. Political betting, therefore, falls into a banned category. Polymarket does not have the necessary licensure to operate legally in Portugal, which explicitly prohibits betting on political or other real-world events. Despite the regulator’s formal order, Polymarket remains accessible for now; however, internet service providers may soon be instructed to block the platform completely.
The Global Reach and Restrictions of Polymarket
Launched in 2020, Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world events, including politics and sports, by buying shares tied to possible outcomes. While popular, the platform has faced restrictions in over 30 countries, including Belgium, Italy, and Ukraine. Regulatory approaches vary—France limits user interaction to a ‘view-only’ mode, whereas Belgium outright blacklists the platform.
Portugal’s recent enforcement highlights how political events, such as January 18th’s presidential election, can draw intense interest and regulatory scrutiny. The sharp rise in liquidity around political markets, with massive volumes of capital flowing in, has made platforms like Polymarket increasingly vulnerable to legal challenges.
Growing Global Focus on Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Polymarket are at a crossroads, as they continue to collide with national gambling laws. In jurisdictions where political betting is explicitly restricted, the scale of capital drawn to specific political events often triggers rapid legal responses. Betting activity linked to the Portuguese election highlights the tension between such platforms’ innovations and regulatory compliance.
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As the global demand for prediction markets continues to grow, it’s crucial for platforms like Polymarket to align with regional regulatory frameworks to sustain long-term operations.
