Cardano’s Price: Could History Repeat Itself?
Cardano (ADA) is on the radar once again, as the cryptocurrency forms a familiar technical pattern that previously triggered a 32% rally. With the price lingering near crucial levels, on-chain metrics and whale activity suggest there might be another surge in the cards for this blockchain platform beloved by developers and investors alike.
What is Driving This Price Setup?
A key signal behind the growing bullish sentiment is the appearance of a bullish divergence on the daily chart. This technical formation occurs when the price prints lower lows, while momentum—measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—trends higher. RSI, which compares recent gains to losses, signals that selling pressure may soon abate.
The last time Cardano exhibited this structure was between November and December 2025, resulting in a remarkable 32% gain. Currently, ADA’s price is holding above the $0.35 support level, a crucial zone that must hold for momentum to build.
Whales Are Accumulating—A Positive Indicator
Adding fuel to this potential price movement is the activity of ADA whales—holders of between 1 million and 10 million ADA. Since January 12, this group has been quietly amassing tokens, increasing their holdings by over 100 million ADA in a short span. This reflects confidence in the asset despite its current consolidation phase.
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Long-Term Holders vs. Short-Term Risks
Another important metric is spent coin activity, a measure of token movement on-chain. Data reveals that long-term holders—defined as wallets holding ADA for over six months—have dramatically decreased their selling activity. This reflects strong conviction in ADA’s future.
Meanwhile, short-term holders (30–60 days) have grown more active during this bullish pattern, presenting some supply risk if selling pressure materializes at key resistance levels.
Critical Levels to Watch
For the current rally setup to succeed, ADA must overcome significant hurdles. The first test is reclaiming the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $0.41. A sustained daily close above this level could ignite a momentum-driven move targeting $0.43 and possibly the $0.48 resistance—a level aligned with the 200-day EMA.
Conversely, failing to hold the $0.35 support area would invalidate the bullish divergence and expose the price to a deeper correction, potentially toward $0.32. Maintaining strong fundamentals and buyer interest is key to avoiding this outcome and sustaining upward momentum.
Capital Flow Shows Positive Signs
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a metric that tracks capital inflows, is also pointing toward bullish possibilities. Unlike previous rallies where CMF struggled to stay positive, current data shows strong inflows, bolstered by consistent whale accumulation. This difference could provide the push needed for Cardano to test higher resistance levels.
Conclusion: Cautiously Optimistic
While history suggests a potential for Cardano to rally, it’s essential to approach this setup with caution. The interplay of technical patterns, whale behavior, and spent coin metrics strongly indicates a bullish outlook, but market sentiment remains key. Additionally, monitoring developments around key resistance levels and investor activity will help determine whether ADA can replicate its earlier success.
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