Bitcoin has long been compared to gold as a store of value and hedge against inflation. Now, analysts are debating whether the leading cryptocurrency is on the verge of a ‘parabolic blowoff,’ much like gold experienced in recent years.
The Gold Parallel: A Blueprint for Bitcoin?
Gold’s meteoric rise after 2022 was fueled by central banks’ aggressive buying. Following the sanctions triggered by the Ukraine war, central banks increased their gold demand from 400 to over 1,000 tons annually. This heavy demand absorbed the available supply, leading to significant price surges—13% in 2023, 27% in 2024, and nearly 65% in 2025.
Matthew Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, highlights this pattern, suggesting Bitcoin may follow a similar trajectory. “A parabolic move occurs when sellers run out of ammo. If buy-side demand for Bitcoin ETFs continues to grow as it did with gold, we can expect a significant blowoff,” Hougan said.
Bitcoin ETFs: The Demand Driver
Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly been absorbing more than 100% of new supply since launching. With institutional-grade interest driving up demand, parallels to gold’s journey are becoming more apparent. This trend, however, brings its own volatility given the speculative nature of many cryptocurrency buyers.
Key analysts, such as Ryan McMillin from Merkle Tree Capital, argue that Bitcoin’s trajectory won’t be as smooth as gold’s. The cryptocurrency market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, such as Federal Reserve interest rate policies, making it more volatile.
Bitcoin’s Unique Market Behavior
While gold is primarily seen as a hedge against fiat devaluation, Bitcoin is often treated as a risk asset by institutional investors. According to Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, this difference explains Bitcoin’s higher volatility. “Bitcoin has embedded leverage and trading activity that’s far higher than gold’s, making its price movements more dynamic and less predictable,” notes Sun.
Furthermore, Bitcoin is directly impacted by macro liquidity conditions. Shifts in Federal Reserve policies or stock market trends can either fuel or hinder its climb to a parabolic peak.
What Lies Ahead?
The big question for 2026 is whether Bitcoin will continue to mirror gold in its scarcity-driven ascent or carve out its own turbulent path. Experts agree on one thing—Bitcoin’s demand through ETFs could be the tipping point that drives it into a new bull market, albeit with more volatility than gold experienced.
If you’re looking to explore investments in cryptocurrency, platforms like Coinbase offer user-friendly tools to get started with Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Bitcoin has climbed 1.8% in the past 24 hours, while gold has seen a slight dip of 0.32%, according to the latest figures from CoinGecko. Analysts and enthusiasts alike remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to hit new highs in the coming years.
