Leading economist Henrik Zeberg has issued a clear warning that the United States is on the brink of a recession. His analysis, rooted in recent downward revisions in nonfarm payroll data, highlights alarming trends that have historically preceded economic downturns since the 1970s.
Key Signals of a Recession
Zeberg points to October 2025 payrolls, which were revised down significantly from a previously reported decline of 105,000 to a staggering loss of 173,000 jobs. November saw similarly discouraging trends, with job growth revised to just 56,000 positions. These adjustments suggest a stark shift in the labor market that may signal trouble ahead.
More notably, Zeberg emphasizes the 12-month moving average (MA) of job creation as a critical indicator. Historically, whenever this metric dipped below specific thresholds, a U.S. recession soon followed. Alarmingly, this moving average has now breached those thresholds, despite the current labor market being larger than in past cycles. This, according to Zeberg, underscores an imminent economic decline.
December Jobs Report: More Evidence of Weakness
The December 2025 jobs report adds further weight to the concerns raised by Zeberg. Employers added only 50,000 jobs during the month. While this figure narrowly avoided a contraction, it represents one of the weakest December readings outside of a recession in decades. Combined with October’s significant job losses and November’s sluggish growth, the data paints a bleak picture for hiring momentum as the economy heads into 2026.
What This Means for Investors
Despite his strong warnings of an impending recession, Zeberg has also predicted that major sectors like stocks and cryptocurrencies might reach new all-time highs before the ultimate downturn hits. This highlights a potential opportunity for speculative gains, but investors should tread carefully, given the volatility of such markets.
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Conclusion
Henrik Zeberg’s analysis provides a sobering forecast for the U.S. economy as we enter 2026. Downward trends in the labor market and a breach of key historical indicators serve as warning signs for what may be a challenging year ahead. As the potential for a historic economic crash remains on the horizon, investors and individuals alike should prepare for significant economic shifts.
