The U.S. tariff system has undergone significant changes over the years, with a notable expansion taking place in 2026. The extensive Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) now comprises over 4,500 pages—an increase of 100 pages from last year and a substantial 800-page growth since the Trump administration introduced tariffs in 2017. This expanded framework poses new opportunities and challenges for businesses, consumers, and policymakers alike.
What’s New in the 2026 Tariff System?
The latest updates in the HTS reflect the increasing complexity of global trade. Companies importing goods into the U.S. must now navigate 17 separate tariff categories, a stark difference from the mere three categories required in 2017. These categories outline specific duties for a wide range of products, from automotive parts to construction equipment, adding an extra layer of complexity for supply chain managers and trade compliance professionals.
Particularly notable is the detailed Chapter 99, which includes hundreds of temporary trade modifications driven by executive orders. This surge in regulations exemplifies the growing administrative burden placed on businesses looking to remain compliant.
Investor Outlook: Betting on Tariff Repeals
As the U.S. Supreme Court deliberates on the authority of the Trump-era tariffs, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket forecast a 25-27% probability that the tariffs will remain in place. These odds reflect a significant investor sentiment that the court may roll back trade barriers—potentially benefiting sectors like retail and manufacturing, which have struggled under increased input costs.
For example, leading brands such as Home Depot and Costco have seen a 5-6% growth in their stock value this year, signaling optimism that tariff relief could lower operational costs. Additionally, food and beverage manufacturers such as Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and Mondelez stand to reduce input costs for materials impacted by current tariffs.
Tariff Challenges: Administrative Costs and Uncertainty
The growing regulatory requirements present significant hurdles. According to Yale Budget Lab data, the average tariff rate stands at 16.8%. On top of these direct costs, businesses may face indirect administrative expenses equal to or exceeding the tariffs themselves. Surveys show that companies often dedicate significant resources to ensure compliance, such as hiring trade specialists or investing in advanced tariff-tracking software to keep shipments moving smoothly.
Despite potential Supreme Court rulings favoring businesses, concerns over refund mechanisms and reimbursement processing may delay relief. There’s also widespread uncertainty about whether alternative legal frameworks could be used to reinstate the tariffs in the future.
How Businesses Can Prepare
To adapt to these changes, companies should consider investing in robust compliance tools and expert guidance. Utilizing trade software such as Avalara’s TariffCalc or hiring legal consultants can streamline classification processes and ensure adherence to regulations. These tools can also help businesses identify refunds or offsets if rulings alter the current tariff structure.
For business owners seeking resources to navigate the intricacies of tariffs, we recommend Avalara TariffCalc, a comprehensive platform designed to simplify customs processes, track tariff changes, and ensure compliance.
Conclusion
The expansion of the U.S. tariff schedule in 2026 highlights the increasing complexity of global trade. Whether you’re a small business owner, a retailer, or a multinational corporation, it’s essential to stay informed and proactive about these changes. By leveraging data, prediction markets, and compliance tools, companies can remain agile despite the challenges posed by evolving trade policies.
