Is Bitcoin Truly in a Bear Market? Insights from CryptoQuant
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts and investors alike are questioning whether Bitcoin is officially in a bear market. According to CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, Bitcoin’s recent price movements and key technical indicators suggest we may already be several weeks into this downturn.
The Signals Indicating a Bear Market
In a recent interview on the Milk Road Show, Moreno explained that Bitcoin’s bull score index—a composite score analyzing metrics such as network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and market liquidity—turned bearish in early November 2025 and hasn’t bounced back.
A major factor in his assessment is Bitcoin’s price falling below its one-year moving average. This metric, widely used to identify long-term trends, serves as a contrast to predictions from analysts who foresee strong growth for Bitcoin in 2026.
Historical Context: Bear Market Pricing Patterns
Bitcoin began 2025 at around $93,000 and reached its peak at $126,080 in October, only to slip back below its starting price by year-end. Moreno forecasts Bitcoin’s potential low for this bear market will range between $56,000 and $60,000, representing a significant but less severe drawdown compared to historic cycles.
Historically, prices in previous bear markets dropped 70-80% from Bitcoin’s all-time high. A smaller drawdown this cycle could imply a stabilization in Bitcoin’s market, thanks to an evolving ecosystem.
Structural Changes and Market Stability
Unlike the turbulent bear market of 2022—marked by collapses of major players like Terra, Celsius, and FTX—the current downturn feels more stable. New structural changes in the market, such as increasing participation from large institutional investors and the rise of Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), are creating a more balanced demand environment. These institutional players tend to purchase more consistently, insulating the market from extreme volatility.
Moreno explained, “With such consistent demand, Bitcoin isn’t seeing as sharp a decline as in previous cycles.”
Looking Ahead to 2026
While some see 2026 as a year of recovery for Bitcoin, Moreno’s analysis suggests caution is warranted. Investors may want to keep a close eye on indicators like Bitcoin’s realized price, a key metric that measures the average purchase price of existing coins. If the price dips closer to this realized value, it could signal a market bottom.
As Bitcoin navigates these complex market dynamics, long-term holders and new investors should stay informed and develop strategies to protect their portfolio during downturns.
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