Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has been on a turbulent path, with its value currently trading at approximately $87,000. Despite its history of significant growth, recent patterns indicate a potential for further decline. As investors and crypto enthusiasts closely monitor market trends, let’s explore the factors behind this situation and the predictions shaping Bitcoin’s future.
Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market?
According to the Bitcoin Repeating Cycle indicator—a tool that has historically predicted bullish and bearish phases with notable accuracy—Bitcoin has entered a bearish territory. The indicator identified the peak of the latest cycle in October, signaling the start of a decline that may last until October 2026.
João Wedson, a prominent market analyst, explains, “The fractal model suggests a possible bottom between $40,000 and $45,000. However, this is not a guarantee, but rather a pattern observed in Bitcoin’s historical cycles.”
An Analysis of Bitcoin’s Price Movement
While Bitcoin’s correction falls within the typical 35% decline range for minor cycles, this current downturn has sparked debate. If the market retraces further to the projected $40,000–$45,000 level, it would mark a decline of 64% to 68%, indicating a major cycle correction. However, historical data shows mixed trends:
- In 2021, Bitcoin experienced a 77% drop from its $69,000 peak, underscoring a major cycle correction.
- Currently, Bitcoin has shed 32% from its latest $126,000 high, aligning with past minor corrections.
What Off-Chain Metrics Are Telling Us
Despite the bearish predictions, off-chain data suggests less aggressive selling pressure compared to previous market downturns. For example:
- The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) trend indicates minimal distribution, with traded volume showing only a minor dip—from 17.63 million BTC to 17.52 million BTC.
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has transitioned from deep red to lighter shades, a signal that often precedes a bullish recovery.
Encouraging Global Trends
Global economic conditions and Bitcoin’s increasing adoption may challenge bearish narratives. Key factors include:
- The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in major economies like the United States and Hong Kong, driving institutional investment of over $116 billion.
- An expansion in global M2 money supply to $147 trillion, which historically supports growth in risk assets like Bitcoin.
These trends suggest long-term potential for Bitcoin as a mainstream investment asset.
How to Navigate Bitcoin Investments
As Bitcoin continues to navigate its cycles, using tools like the Ledger Nano X is highly recommended to securely store your cryptocurrency holdings. You can purchase yours from the official Ledger website to protect your investments against potential risks.
The Road Ahead
While Bitcoin’s fractal predictions point to a potential decline to $45,000 by 2026, off-chain metrics and macroeconomic conditions paint a more nuanced picture. Investors must weigh historical patterns against current trends and exercise caution before making decisions. Regardless of market movements, the cryptocurrency’s future continues to hold significant promise as adoption grows worldwide.
