Heading into Christmas 2025: Bitcoin’s Market Condition
As we approach Christmas 2025, Bitcoin finds itself in a fascinating yet precarious position. Trading around the $93,000 mark, Bitcoin has faced weeks of persistent market pressure. But is the crypto giant poised for a bullish breakout, or will it continue its current correction phase? Four key charts offer some insight into Bitcoin’s price trends and what could lie ahead for the cryptocurrency market.
1. Short-Term Holders in Heavy Loss
The first chart tracks the realized profit and loss of short-term holders (STHs), encompassing wallets that acquired Bitcoin in recent months. In early 2025, STHs enjoyed gains of 15–20% as Bitcoin surged upward. However, the tides have turned. Bitcoin now trades below the STH realized price, leaving 75% of STHs in loss, which equates to over 4.36 million BTC in negative territory.
Historically, Bitcoin turns a corner when it reclaims the STH realized price and holds above that level. Until that happens, the market faces selling pressures from holders hoping just to break even. This persistence signals that the market correction may still have some room to play out.
2. Whale Behavior: Old vs. New Players
Bitcoin’s second chart examines realized profit and loss by whale cohorts—classified as ‘new whales’ (recent large holders) and ‘old whales’ (long-term large holders). Recent data shows that new whales realized losses of $386 million in a single day, signifying significant capitulation. Meanwhile, old whales remain relatively calm with smaller realized profits and losses, suggesting they are holding steady and unfazed by the current turbulence.
This whale behavior is consistent with market corrections. New whales often enter with strong narratives or leverage, only to sell at a loss when prices decline. While this short-term selling can pull prices lower, it also consolidates Bitcoin’s ownership among stronger hands, setting a stronger foundation for future price stability.
3. Macro Conditions Still Dominant
The third chart overlays Bitcoin’s price with U.S. two-year real yields (interest rates adjusted for inflation). Across 2025, the relationship between Bitcoin prices and real yields has been clear: as real yields rise (reflecting tighter liquidity), Bitcoin prices have struggled. Currently, real yields remain high, creating a macroeconomic headwind for Bitcoin’s recovery.
For the cryptocurrency market to regain bullish momentum, real yields may need to decline, signaling improved liquidity conditions. Until then, macroeconomic factors will continue to suppress Bitcoin’s potential for significant upward movement. The Federal Reserve’s economic policy decisions are worth monitoring closely.
4. Buying Pressure Resurfaces on Spot Markets
Hope emerges on the fourth chart, which tracks the 90-day Spot Taker CVD—a metric showing whether market buyers or sellers dominate activity. In previous weeks, sellers significantly outnumbered buyers, contributing to Bitcoin’s price declines. However, recent data shows a shift toward Taker Buy Dominance, with aggressive buyers outpacing sellers on major spot exchanges.
This green momentum signals renewed demand for Bitcoin and could indicate the early stages of market stabilization. Yet, sustained buy-side activity across spot markets will be crucial to confirm a potential trend reversal.
Path to Recovery: Signals to Watch
The charts collectively illustrate a market correction nearing its later stages, but not quite ready for a full recovery. To see a shift into a bull market, three key signals are worth monitoring:
- Bitcoin’s price must reclaim the STH realized price. This would signal that most forced selling is over.
- Two-year real yields need to decline. Easier financial conditions could ignite new demand.
- Sustained Taker Buy Dominance. Consistent buy-side activity on spot markets indicates robust, organic demand.
Until these conditions align, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound between $85,000 and $93,000, with occasional downside spikes. Savvy long-term investors might see this period as an opportunity to strategize while avoiding large, aggressive bets.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin’s journey toward Christmas 2025 showcases a market grappling with corrections, macroeconomic headwinds, and shifting investor behavior. While the asset isn’t yet poised for its next bull run, key market signals suggest the foundation for recovery may be forming. Stay tuned as new data unfolds, and remember: patience is key in the volatile world of cryptocurrency.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct thorough research and consult a professional before making investment decisions.
