Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Shakeout: Fueling the Next Recovery?
Bitcoin short-term holders, those who purchased the cryptocurrency in the past 1-3 months, are experiencing a rollercoaster market ride. In May 2025, they enjoyed gains of +25%, but recent market activity has plunged them into a -25% loss as of December. What does this mean for Bitcoin’s trajectory?
Short-Term Loss, Long-Term Potential
The swing in profit and loss signals a wave of market capitulation—a process where less experienced investors sell out of their positions, transferring wealth to “strong hands.” Historically, such phases of capitulation have been associated with market bottoms and potential recovery opportunities.
CryptoQuant analyst DarkFrost shared, “During this cycle, these phases have often been associated with the formation of a bottom. Once a large portion of holders capitulate, the opportunity to accumulate becomes very interesting.” This perspective aligns with insights from market trends forecasting potential rebounds at key resistance points.
Key Resistance at $93,000
Bitcoin faced strong rejection at the critical $93,000 price level but is now making another attempt. On December 3, 2025, market data showed Bitcoin trading at $93,330—a 7.4% surge within 24 hours.
Analysts at Glassnode suggest that breaking the $93,321 mark would result in approximately $570 million in liquidated short positions. Such liquidations act like rocket fuel for market momentum, potentially driving the cryptocurrency toward its next breakout.
Investors’ Sentiment Is Improving
The market is showing signs of improving sentiment. Prediction markets, most notably Myriad (owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan), show optimism among users. A significant 80% of respondents believe Bitcoin is more likely to hit $100,000 before falling to $69,000.
Supporting this sentiment, options data from Deribit indicates reduced demand for downside protection. The 7-day 25-delta options skew, for example, improved from -10% to -4% at the start of December, reflecting optimism. Adam Chu, chief researcher at GreeksLive, noted, “This signals a rebound. With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening and rising odds of rate cuts, there’s potential for liquidity to flow back into risk assets—crypto included.”
How to Position Yourself in the Market
The convergence of reduced selling pressure, key resistance levels, and improved investor sentiment paints a promising picture for Bitcoin. For those interested in the crypto landscape, this could mark an accumulation phase.
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As the market continues to evolve, keeping an eye on breaking resistance points like $93,000 could provide clues to Bitcoin’s next move.
