As the crypto community approaches the end of 2025, one pressing question looms: will Bitcoin experience the anticipated ‘Santa rally’ to close the year on a high note? Experts are skeptical. Here’s an in-depth look at the current Bitcoin market, including insights from leading analysts and the role of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions.
Bitcoin’s Market Struggles: What’s Happening?
After a sharp 30% decline earlier this year, Bitcoin [BTC] has stabilized just above the $80,000 level. While this is reassuring for investors who fear further crashes, it’s becoming clear that expectations for a year-end bull run have diminished. According to Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC trading at Wintermute, many traders have already given up on the ‘Santa rally.’
Speaking about market sentiment, Ostrovskis explained, “The optimism for an all-time high by year-end has effectively been priced out of the market. Calls are being reduced, and topside bets for Bitcoin remain capped well below previous peaks.”
Options Trading Data Reflects Caution
Options markets reveal a story of hedging over hope. Most calls are targeting mild bullish price ranges between $100,000 and $118,000, falling short of Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $126,000. Meanwhile, the 25 Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) metric has shown consistent negative sentiment for November and December, meaning investors are prioritizing protective puts over speculative calls.
Jake Ostrovskis predicts that Bitcoin must see a neutral 25RR level (zero) to indicate a fundamental market bottom. Until then, the narrative of caution persists.
Potential Catalysts for Market Movement
While uncertainty dominates, several elements could ignite momentum. For one, Bitcoin’s resistance levels between $85,000 and $86,500 could serve as springboards for a more bullish outlook. Swissblock noted that while the coin recovered to $89,000 earlier this week, the momentum remains deeply negative—a sign of late-stage capitulation.
ETF inflows earlier this month have been inconsistent, limiting Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. Whether this trend changes will depend heavily on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. As Nic Puckrin from The Coin Bureau puts it, “The Fed holds the key to the market’s end-of-year finale. Its next move will decide whether we see a Santa rally—or a Santa dump.”
Preparing Your Crypto Portfolio
Investors looking to navigate this uncertain market might benefit from tools and resources designed for crypto trend analysis. One such product is Ledger’s Nano X hardware wallet. Its secure and portable design can help safeguard your digital assets during market volatility. Learn more about the Ledger Nano X here.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s year-end prospects remain unclear, upcoming events—most notably the Fed’s rate decisions—could significantly influence market behavior. Investors are advised to stay informed and make cautious, research-backed decisions during this critical period.
