Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has entered its fourth consecutive week of losses, marking its longest losing streak since June 2024. This comes as the market grapples with shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations and cautious investor sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Performance: Worst Quarter Since 2018?
Currently trading at approximately $87,400, Bitcoin has experienced a 24.43% decline during the fourth quarter, putting it on track for its worst quarterly performance since 2018. Traders and analysts are preparing for a volatile market environment heading into the holiday season.
“I expect a rough ride into Christmas,” stated Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, an options analytics platform. Despite these challenges, some on-chain data suggests that demand may be resurfacing. The aggregate spot bid-ask delta, representing buy and sell pressure, has surged to its second-highest level of 2025, signaling increased dip-buying activity.
Is a Bitcoin Bull Trap Looming?
While Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, climbing 6% from a recent low of $82,100, analysts remain cautious about a sustained rebound. Dawson warns of a potential bull trap, with downside risk in the $80,000 to $85,000 range. Many options traders have hedged against further declines, loading up on put options for these levels, particularly with December 2025 expiries.
Impact of Federal Reserve Policy
The recent recovery in Bitcoin’s price has coincided with changing Federal Reserve policy expectations. Odds of an interest rate cut in December 2025 have jumped from 40% to nearly 70%, stirring cautious optimism in the crypto market. However, fears of persistent inflation and a potentially slow transition to quantitative easing have tempered market enthusiasm.
Market sentiment, as measured by fear indices, remains in extreme fear territory. Dawson noted, “Fears of sticky inflation mean a slower transition into quantitative easing than previously expected, leaving traders on edge.”
Looking Ahead: $100,000 by 2026?
Despite current market headwinds, some analysts project that Bitcoin could recover to $90,000 by year-end if the Federal Reserve does not adopt a more hawkish stance. Further optimism suggests the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in the first quarter of 2026, a testament to the cryptocurrency’s resilience during uncertain times.
Get Financially Ready with Ledger Nano X
In these volatile times, protecting your assets is essential. The Ledger Nano X, a leading hardware wallet for cryptocurrency, ensures your Bitcoin and other digital assets are securely stored offline. Its secure features and user-friendly design make it a must-have for every crypto investor.
As the cryptocurrency market navigates uncertain waters, staying informed and financially prepared can make all the difference.
